Lava prediction, 21 September, 21:00

I am going to publish this on a daily basis until the flow stops or enters the ocean. I am being told that I can’t predict the flow or the path but I think I can and we’ll see. I refer to the PRESENT flow only.  If another flow appears and the path deviates, I’ll take that on as well.

The lava didn’t advance far enough today to show on the HVO topo so there may not be an updated map immediately.  I doubt it will advance during the current period of summit deflation. The event may simply be over at this point.

Assuming, however, that the summit begins to inflate again, as is probable, there may be another breakout near Puʻu ʻŌʻō but that will be another event; or the current flow might be re-invigorated and continue with fresh energy. Or not.

At this time, however, my original prediction stands.  Nothing has happened to cause a modification. The flow has almost stopped. At it’s present speed it could reach Hwy 130 about Halloween; ~37-40 days.


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