Perception vs. Perspective. It makes a difference.

First, thanks, Mark!  I admit my mistakes. The biggest mistake anyone can make is not admitting to their second biggest mistake.  😀

OK…perception:  Someone Twittered this and asked “Who cares what an egg is”?

postmodern art

And that’s basically how people think – by perception, without any idea of perspective. And I suppose if you are a post-modern artist, you can draw whatever your mind sees.

But if it’s your job to develop the product, what comes out of your butt makes a HUGE difference.

Eggs

These are from my back yard. L > R: Emden goose, Mallard duck, shelless chicken egg , Australorp chicken, dove.

No one cares unless they have to lay it so make sure you understand the other person’s point of view.  Perspective is always involved.

Everyone in the entire world needs to read and understand this.

It is what is ACTUALLY going on, and it is EXACTLY THE SAME THING we are trying to do to Russia via Ukraine and, not coincidentally, to China via Hong Kong.

Try to understand that the US is no longer the country we ‘boomers’ grew up in, or fought for.  It is no longer the bastion of liberty and freedom. We are EIGHT TIMES more likely to be killed by a police officer than by a terrorist and we PROBABLY CALLED THE POLICE OFFICER FOR HELP.

The US has become the bad guy. Dreaming and pretending and watching football or DWTS won’t change it.  WE ARE THE MAJOR EXPORTER OF TERRORISM IN THE WORLD.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-10-05/siege-kobani-obamas-syrian-fiasco-motion

I am concentrating on the middle east at the moment, but I’ll get around to demonstrating that the US is arming and supporting a neo-nazi regime in Ukraine.

And here we go:  http://www.tomdispatch.com/post/175903/tomgram%3A_pepe_escobar%2C_new_silk_roads_and_an_alternate_eurasian_century/#more

Another:  http://www.newsweek.com/american-who-dared-make-putins-case-231388

Lava Prediction, 4 October – or – ‘The Zen of treating life as an adventure – not a disaster’.

The stalled lava front stopped, but fresh breakouts are being fed from Pu‘u ‘Ō‘ō.  They have encompassed the stalled front and are continuing to flow – about 900 feet over the past two days but only about 150 feet since yesterday . Whether or not it will continue to flow, and in what direction, is now conjectural instead of the flat “no” I have been saying to this point, although that is still my opinion.

The reason is this:  The flow has never been voluminous.  It moves faster over steeper ground and slows and widens over flatter ground.  But it is still a ribbon flow, not a mass flow.  As it reached more level ground, it widened and stopped, as one would expect.  The flow has moved around the stoppage into a water runoff and has narrowed and deepened – thus allowing it to move faster, but not increasing the volume.  It is following the terrain; not washing over it as we expect with larger flows.

That is not to say the new vent that created this flow won’t become a larger flow at some point in the future.  It almost certainly will.  But THIS flow, at THIS time, is an outlier and certainly an inconvenience, but it isn’t a disaster.  Living on the side of an active volcano is a little like hunting bears.  Sometimes you get the bear; sometimes the bear gets you. The sun still rises in the East.

At this point in time, IF the flow continues, my assessment from yesterday is still valid for flow direction.  There are variables, but lava, like water, takes the easiest path – and the easiest path is where water runoff travels.  If the volume of lava happened to increase and overflow the easiest path, it would continue downhill to the next runoff and follow it until and if it overflowed that.

So you can see the path the lava will likely take simply by correlating the point of the flow to the nearest water runoff.  Those are the lines marked in blue on the topographical map:  http://hvo.wr.usgs.gov/maps/uploads/image-140.jpg   and then compare that to the satellite photo:  http://hvo.wr.usgs.gov/maps/uploads/image-141.jpg .

Except not always. Because the topo is not a perfect representation of the actual situation on the ground, and lava doesn’t flow exactly like water – more like thick, incandescent concrete.  You can see this a little in the satellite photo because streets have been superimposed on it in black.  For a variety of cartographical reasons, the overlay does not always correspond exactly to the photo.  But it is close enough to show that the lava stays in waterflow areas unless it simply overflows one, and then it goes to the next one.  Gravity always wins.

You can see those areas in the photo because they are darker green in color – indicating that they are more lush because of a more plentiful waterflow.  And you can extrapolate that the lava, at it’s current flow volume, will probably stay within or very near that darker green area.  That puts it across Cemetery Road south of the transfer station and across the Old Government Road south of Apa’a Street. You can follow the vegetation and imagine it crossing Hwy 130 North of the Post Office road.

My FIRST prediction was made when the flow had jumped the stream bed it was following on 6 September and was above Kahoe Homesteads where it sort of puddled and piddled and pancaked and couldn’t decide whether it wanted to go further north or further south and eventually it just stopped.

Now it has a little fresh batter from the vent and it dived right into the stream bed it had been trending toward.  That has allowed it to move again.  It will follow that stream bed very closely if it actually continues to move. If the volume decreases, it will stop. If it increses, it could jump that path and widen to the south.

Earlier in the week I went on a boat and we cruised from Cape Kumakahi to Hilo.  It’s a completely different perspective than an aerial photo.  From the water It looks worse than I think it is.

Anyway… a friend called today and asked if it could reach HPP.  No.  But if this is a precurser to Mauna Loa erupting, like ’83-’84, Mauna Loa can potentially reach HPP, however it’s best path to the sea is through Hilo…or Kona.  🙂

Lava Prediction, 3 October, UPDATED 19:30

The lava has started moving again. The map is now current.  I came back in to check when Chopper 1 went over my house this evening.  Looks like we are back to twice-a-day chopper flights.

At this point it really doesn’t make a lot of difference for property values south of …say….HPP.  They are tanking.  Especially since Oprah went on TV a couple of years ago and said that Puna property was a bargain and everyone starting buying homes here.  On the side of two active volcanos.  Oprah lives on Maui.  They have no live volcanos there.

But I can advance my prediction just a bit.  IF the lava continues, which I still believe it won’t….

The little bit of flow that moved has jumped into a stream bed.  If it stays there and continues along the stream bed – which is the most logical route – it will miss or just catch the south edge of the transfer station, cross the old government road between the transfer station road and the post office road, then cross Hwy 130 just NORTH of the Post office road (about where the radar speed sign is) and then meander down toward Kahakai.  If it keeps going it could cut the road about halfway down and again by the elementary school before it turns NE and cuts Railroad and Beach road before going into the ocean.

I doubt it will keep going.  Even if it does, it will be a pretty small flow and we can work around it.

I’ll let you know when to panic:  Never.

Lava Prediction, 2 October, 19:00 – and my weekly rant.

It’s leaking a little but not moving.  I called someone today. “Hey, instead of $5,000 an hour for the county helicopter, why not just ask the police officers you have up there restricting access or one of the HVO observers who are there 24/7 to call in if it breaks out and THEN send the helicopter?”

While you are at it, why not spend a thousand bucks to charter 5 seats on one of the commercial tour helicopters instead of using the county’s at five times the cost?

And I have to ask why the radio stations break in once an hour all day long to play the same Civil Defense message that says nothing is happening?  Wait until something IS happening and THEN tell us.

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Seriously…people are all freaked out because a little lava might cross the road eventually.

The fact that we live on the side of two ACTIVE VOLCANOES and there has been an almost continuous eruption FROM THAT EXACT SITE for almost 31 YEARS, since January 3, 1983, or the fact that you really can’t get a good home loan or much in the way of insurance in that area BECAUSE IT IS IN LAVA ZONE 1 AND IN IMMINENT DANGER does not appear to be enough clue to make people understand that the steam and sulphur dioxide they have seen every day for all those years is from the active volcano WE CHOSE TO LIVE ON and that the lava is coming sometime…

But not this time.

The rest of the time everyone is worried that there is an ISIS cell in the neighborhood just waiting to cut off their heads.   But they got rid of, or won’t touch a firearm, because firearms are dangerous.  So although the chance of you being killed accidentally by a local police officer on a SWAT team which is raiding your house because they got the wrong address than from ANY terrorist activity, people are afraid of Muslims and ebola and flu shots and zombies and Democrats and Republicans and LGBT people and everything else that they CHOOSE to be afraid of – and the only way they can protect themselves is by drinking and driving.

You don’t have to hate anyone. You don’t have to afraid of anyone. All you have to do is be willing to defend yourself if negotiation doesn’t work.  That’s it.  If you aren’t willing to fight for your own life it’s not valuable to you. Don’t ask me me to lay down mine to protect something you don’t value.  If you aren’t willing to lay down your life down for freedom, you aren’t free. Don’t ask me to lay down my life for your freedom.  America has become ‘you’ and ‘me’.  It used to be ‘US’.  Together we were a great nation.  Now, not so much.

T

Before that it was something else and before that it was something else.

I can just about guarantee that Ebola is loose in the wild in the US.

Minor update:  Liberia will prosecute the man who brought ebola to the US for falsifying an exit document.  He knew he had been exposed and said he hadn’t.  Checking a box before getting on a flight to anywhere is all one needs to spread ebola to the world.  

He knew he had it when he went to the hospital in Dallas and TOLD THE HOSPITAL STAFF but they sent him home without testing him.

This is America’s “A” team, folks.  These are the morons you trust to protect your life.

First, watch this unbelievable video.  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T4CTkWjTMyY

Then read the New York Times article.  http://www.nytimes.com/2014/10/03/us/dallas-ebola-case-thomas-duncan-contacts.html?_r=1

This is how the Red Cross delivers food to the man’s family…the ones who are quarantined.  Yep, I’m serious.

EbolafooddeliverySo where does Obama send 3,000 militart medical personnel to help?   http://www.washingtonpost.com/news/to-your-health/wp/2014/09/30/the-u-s-military-forces-fighting-the-war-on-ebola/

There is almost no possibility that the President of the US can be so incompetent accidentally.  I don’t know who runs the White house; certainly not the President. It appears to me as though no one is running it at all and that every government agency with a budget is doing whatever they want to do.  The big problem with that is that having no one in charge is more fragmentary than having an idiot like Dubya’ in charge.  The country is irrevocably destroyed.  We are waging ‘non-wars’ in 184 locations worldwide but the City of Detroit is shutting off the public water supply to 100,000 unemployed people who can’t pay their water bill because the government allowed the car companies to send all the jobs offshore.

The southern border is wide open.  Neither the US nor Mexico controls it.  Drug cartels control it.  Crime is rampant.  The police are militarized.  The solution to that is to disarm the citizenry in the interest of ‘safety’.  It’s analagous to Prohibition but instead of making alcohol illegal, it is now illegal to protect yourself or your family from anyone – especially from the government, whose job has never been to protect you.  The only job of the government is to protect itself.

This is supposed to be a cartoon.  It isn’t.

Ebola2

Here is another article from the Washington Post.  But it doesn’t begin to describe the severity of the problem .

http://www.washingtonpost.com/news/post-nation/wp/2014/10/02/officials-say-as-many-as-100-had-contact-with-ebola-patient-four-have-been-quarantined/?tid=pm_national_pop